EDWARD'S LECTURE NOTES:
More notes at http://tanguay.info/learntracker
C O U R S E
The Rise of China
David Daokui Li, Tsinghua University
 |
C O U R S E L E C T U R E China: The Second Largest Economy in the World Notes taken on December 3, 2015 by Edward Tanguay |
•
why is China interesting
•
China's economy is already the second largest in the world
•
second largest economies in history
•
most number twos in the world run into economic and political trouble
•
Germany before WWI
•
Bismarck ran country successively but this led to WWI
•
Japan until 2011 before being taken over by China
•
20 year slump
•
China today is different
•
size matters
•
even though it is number two in the world, it is the largest in terms of population
•
20% of world's population
•
Germany accounts for 2%
•
Japan accounts for 2%
•
relation between population and economy
•
today China is the largest automobile market in the world
•
China has 28% of car market
•
QQ car
•
Chevy Spark
•
cars are almost the same
•
China copied Chevrolet
•
but GM did not go to court to sue Chery
•
because GM was trying to enter the Chinese market
•
GM may win the legal case but may not be able to get into China
•
size of market can change the rules of the game
•
VHS vs. Beta
•
Japan did not invent the VCR
•
invented Beta
•
then there was the VHS which was inferior, bigger, lower quality
•
today nobody remembers Beta
•
VHS became the popular model
•
it was because of size, the Japanese market was not big enough
•
mobile phones
•
format is a critical issue
•
GSM, continental Europe and USA
•
CDMA, USA
•
TD-LTE, Chinese format
•
today the TD format is serving 500 million
•
money matters as well
•
China has the highest savings rates
•
50% of Chinese GDP is being saved, not spent
•
accumulate a lot of money
•
Chinese households put money in Chinese banks
•
Chinese central government today has four trillion US dollars in currency reserves
•
could buy every share of equity on the London Stock Exchange, or twice as much as all the shares listed on the Australian Stock Exchange
•
housing
•
Chinese investors and families are buying houses abroad
•
many buy with cash
•
they cannot go to a bank to get a loan
•
ideology
•
Chinese is not recognized as a democracy
•
German after first being establish in 1872 was arguably an emergent democracy
•
in the First Reich, the first incarnation of the German federal system
•
German election rate was higher than in Britain
•
members of the National People's Congress are not directly elected
•
indirectly elected by members of subsidiary People's Congress
•
China is run by a ruling party
•
preamble of Chinese constitution
•
"China is led by the Communist Party in correlation with many other parties"
•
but communist party is the ruling party
•
communist is a good word in China in the minds of many people
•
size of GDP
•
potential is higher
•
if China follows the path of economic growth of Latin America
•
in 25-30 years China will be 1.5 times the size of the U.S. economy
•
and this is not even the most optimistic future for China